Lower Bounds on Bayes Factors for Multinomial Distributions, with Application to Chi-squared Tests of Fit1
ثبت نشده
چکیده
Lower bounds on Bayes factors in favor of the null hypothesis in multinomial tests of point null hypotheses are developed. These are then applied to derive lower bounds on Bayes factors in both exact and asymptotic chi-squared testing situations. The general conclusion is that the lower bounds tend to be substantially larger than P-values, raising serious questions concerning the routine use of moderately small P-values (e.g., 0.05) to represent significant evidence against the null hypothesis.
منابع مشابه
Properties of Bayes Factors Based on Test Statistics
This article examines the consistency, interpretation and application of Bayes factors constructed from standard test statistics. Primary conclusions are that Bayes factors based on multinomial and normal test statistics are consistent for suitable choices of the hyperparameters used to specify alternative hypotheses, and that such constructions can be extended to obtain consistent Bayes factor...
متن کاملTruncated Linear Minimax Estimator of a Power of the Scale Parameter in a Lower- Bounded Parameter Space
Minimax estimation problems with restricted parameter space reached increasing interest within the last two decades Some authors derived minimax and admissible estimators of bounded parameters under squared error loss and scale invariant squared error loss In some truncated estimation problems the most natural estimator to be considered is the truncated version of a classic...
متن کاملMinimax Estimator of a Lower Bounded Parameter of a Discrete Distribution under a Squared Log Error Loss Function
The problem of estimating the parameter ?, when it is restricted to an interval of the form , in a class of discrete distributions, including Binomial Negative Binomial discrete Weibull and etc., is considered. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for which the Bayes estimator of with respect to a two points boundary supported prior is minimax under squared log error loss function....
متن کاملThe Analysis of Bayesian Probit Regression of Binary and Polychotomous Response Data
The goal of this study is to introduce a statistical method regarding the analysis of specific latent data for regression analysis of the discrete data and to build a relation between a probit regression model (related to the discrete response) and normal linear regression model (related to the latent data of continuous response). This method provides precise inferences on binary and multinomia...
متن کاملEMPIRICAL BAYES ANALYSIS OF TWO-FACTOR EXPERIMENTS UNDER INVERSE GAUSSIAN MODEL
A two-factor experiment with interaction between factors wherein observations follow an Inverse Gaussian model is considered. Analysis of the experiment is approached via an empirical Bayes procedure. The conjugate family of prior distributions is considered. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators are derived. Application of the procedure is illustrated on a data set, which has previously been an...
متن کامل